by Lahav Harkov (September 17, 2019)
This analysis is still valid for all of the last 3 Israeli elections!
1. No one has a majority
The results of the election very unclear, but one thing is certain: no bloc, neither the Right nor the Center-Left, has a majority of at least 61 seats. We simply do not know who will be tasked with building the coalition: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a sixth time, or Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, or perhaps, a different candidate from the Likud.
2. All eyes on Liberman
As expected, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman could very well be the kingmaker. Liberman’s endorsement can push Netanyahu to a majority, and can put Gantz over the edge of 61 seats – if the (Arab) Joint List recommends Gantz, as well.
Liberman repeatedly has called for a unity government between Yisrael Beytenu, Likud and Blue and White. Of course, the big parties don’t need him for a majority and could very well form a government with just the two of them. However, Blue and White has said it will not be in a government with Netanyahu, as long as he is under a recommended indictment.
There is another option for unity - Likud could take its right-wing majority and try to tempt someone (3 or 4) from the Center or Left to cross the lines.
4. Are Netanyahu’s days numbered?
It’s a question that’s been asked for years. If Netanyahu is not tasked with forming the next coalition, or if a coalition is impossible with him in it but possible for the Likud led by someone else – someone like Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan or popular Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar – then the Likud might push him out! The Likud rarely replaces its leaders, having had only four leaders in its entire existence, but it’s not a party of lemmings, either. Its top MKs may not remain loyal to Netanyahu for long.
5. The threshold hurts the Right, again
It’s ironic. When the electoral threshold was raised to 3.25% five years ago, it was expected to hurt the Arab parties... However, in the past three elections, it was the Right that had parties burn tens of thousands of votes without being able to clear the threshold.
Food for Thought. by Steven Shamrak
Not long ago, Arabs began claiming their ‘Semitic’ roots to distort the true, intended meaning of the term "anti-Semitism", with the help of traditional European Jew-haters, about than 10 years ago. Jew-haters are doing the same to the term "Holocaust", naming any genocidal act that has been committed, as a Holocaust - to delude dilute its significance!
Gaza terrorists target Israel with party balloons bearing bombs! In recent months, hundreds of booby-trapped balloons - sometimes bearing the messages “I Love You” and “Happy Birthday” along with small improvised explosives dangling by a string - have descended on Jewish communities downwind of the nearby Gaza Strip. (No war crime hearings in ICC!)
At least half of Blue and White supporters are opposed to a minority government alongside the Joint List. The survey also indicates that about half of the Israeli public supports the establishment of a unity government. Sources say Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser are trying to thwart Gantz's attempts to form a center-left coalition government, pushing instead for a unity government with Netanyahu's Likud.
Democrats blocked a bill on the US House of Representatives that would have prohibited US support for the anti-Israel BDS movement. (Many Jewish Americans still identify with the Democratic party!)
IAEA reported that Iran has stockpiled more than five times the limit of enriched uranium, to 1,510 kilograms, allowed under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal signed by Tehran with world powers. This is a sufficient amount to produce a nuclear weapon, although it would still require several more steps before it could be used in an atomic bomb.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to US Vice President Mike Pence about US-Israel “technological and scientific” cooperation in order to fight the virus.
Quote of the Week:
“Some of us imagined that a misunderstanding had occurred, that because the Arabs did not understand our intentions, they opposed us, but, if we were to make clear to them how modest and limited our aspirations are, they would then stretch out their arms in peace. This too is a fallacy that has been proved so time and again... But an agreement with Arabs outside the Land of Israel is also a delusion... Thus, we conclude that we cannot promise anything to the Arabs of the Land of Israel or the Arab countries. Their voluntary agreement is out of the question...” - Vladimir Jabotinsky, "The Iron Wall" – He came to this realisation in spite of his deep desire to live in peace with Arabs!
ONLY in ISRAEL
(an FaceBook posting)
Israel is the only country in the world where patients visiting doctors end up giving the doctor advice.
Israel is the only country in the world where people swear using Russian or Arabic words because Hebrew does not have swear words.
Israel is the only country in the world with bus drivers and taxi drivers who read Spinoza and Maimonides.
Israel is the only country in the world where no one cares what rules say when an important goal can be achieved by bending them.
Israel is the only country in the world where "small talk" consists of loud, angry debate over politics and religion.
Israel is the only country in the world where bank robbers kiss the mezuzah as they leave with their loot.
Israel is the only country in the world where everyone on a flight gets to know one another before the plane lands. In many cases, they even get to know the pilot and all about his health or marital problems.
Israel is the only country in the world passengers clap and cheer upon landing at an international airport.
Israel is the only country in the world where people call a briefcase “James Bond" and the "@" sign is called a "strudel".
Israel is the only country in the world where the coffee is already so good that Starbucks went bankrupt trying to break into the local market.
Israel is a country surrounded on all sides by enemies, but the people's headaches are caused by the neighbors upstairs.
ISRAEL is the only country in the world where most people, especially Jewish People, really do feel FREE.